8 Predictions for Home Energy Efficiency in 2010

1 - Cash for Caulkers (In Some Form) Will Pass.

Despite the rancorous and divided state of Congress, the case for the proposed Home Star program (perhaps more widely known by the catchy Cash for Caulkers moniker) is so compelling on both an energy reduction and jobs creation basis that this grand idea is fated to pass. Let's hope it isn't gutted along the way.

2 - Weatherization Scams and Shoddy Work Will Plague Us.

With the increase in funding, and states scrambling to get dollars deployed as quickly as possible, we're bound to uncover more shoddy work as was reported in Illinois recently in the New York Times. Energy retrofit actions that threaten health and safety -- by tightening homes without mechanical ventilation, or by producing mold and moisture problems -- have the potential to setback the entire retrofit movement. Demanding that work be done by certified professionals with recognized credentials is more critical than acting quickly.

3 - Consumer Energy Monitors Will Proliferate.

Thanks in part to the interest generated by Google PowerMeter, we can expect new products to come to market over the course of 2010. Already, the market leading products from the UK are testing US versions. Look for lots of options -- mid-priced monitors, low-cost internet connected versions, and higher end products that measure individual circuits and specific appliances, like the soon to arrive eMonitor. And we can also expect that the orphans (remember natural gas, propane and heating oil?) will also become easier to track.

4 - Google PowerMeter Will Open its API, and Connect to Expanded Consumer Devices to Include Gas and Oil in Addition to Electricity.

Google's been promising to open the API to GPM, and we suspect the only thing holding this up are the wild claims of some of the tea party crowd that thinks energy monitoring is a trojan horse for stealing your freedom. Once open, we're excited to see where the wisdom of the crowds will take this. And we're also betting that integration with devices that measure the other energy inputs is in the offing as well.

5 - Deep Energy Retrofits as a Concept Will Take Hold.

The "Deep Energy Retrofit" - code language for a significant energy efficiency upgrade to an existing building on the order of 70% reduction or more - is a term that hasn't penetrated the mainstream... yet.  We see a very practical new ethic emerging in the existing home sector that places value on straightforward renovations that have the primary objective of producing comfortable, livable homes that are dramatically lower users of energy.

6 - LEDs Will Continue to Bridge the Color Temperature Gap, and Prices Will Fall.

LED lights have made huge strides just in the past year.  From the Clinton Foundation retrofitting all of Los Angeles' street lamps to LEDs, to some of the first LED replacements for standard incandescent bulbs, 2009 saw massive development and implementation of what was, until quite recently, something of a fringe technology.  We expect that in 2010, LEDs will become even better replacements for standard incandescent lighting.  In anticipation of the increased lighting efficiency standards set to take effect in 2012, furthermore, we think that increased demand for LEDs will lead to some nice economies of scale -- and a corresponding drop in price.

7 - Smart Meter Rollouts Will Continue to Stumble.

For all their theoretical promise, the early missteps by the utilities rolling out smart meters are a sign of things to come. Even the most progressive utilities are still fundamentally utilities--organizations whose DNA is ponderous, cautious and bureaucratic. For as long as they've existed, they've had the luxury of selling a recurring revenue product with no transparency that is nearly impossible for the customer to understand, track or corroborate. As we've seen in CA, they're not really ready for consumers to be independently tracking their energy use, and questioning their bills with real data.

8 - Energy Prices Won't Spike this Year.

Perhaps the biggest challenge we'll face is that energy prices aren't likely to return to where they were in Summer 08. We risk being lulled into complacency once again, despite the unprecedented commitment of our current government to fixing our country's energy situation. Still, we see optimism that most homeowners know the clock is ticking, and are ready to begin making moves to make themselves resilient to energy prices whenever they return. Even without the direct economic pressure, change is happening. It is incumbent on all of us in the know to keep the pressure on, to over communicate and to encourage everyone we know to take action now.